This achievement is all the more remarkable because 2022 was, by any standard, an extraordinary year. A year in which we saw the emergence of a new world, geopolitically more complex and economically more volatile and uncertain.
Back in December 2021, as the shock of the pandemic receded, economists expected inflation to be transitory, Europe to grow faster than the US, and Chinese GDP to rise above 5%. None of that has happened.
Instead, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparked Europe’s worst energy crisis since the 1970s. Inflation, reinforced by war, disruption of supply chains, and the continued impact of climate change, became the world's biggest macroeconomic concerns. And as though these were not enough, the zero-Covid policy imposed by the Chinese authorities dampened the growth of China’s - and the global - economy.
Many believe that this new world will inevitably be worse than the one we left behind. That the long period of improving living conditions, reducing poverty, better education, technological progress, and the spread of democracy has come to a halt. Some worry that it may not return.
However, this is not my vision of the world.
I have long defined myself as an ‘’optimist who worries a lot’’. Someone who believes in humanity's capacity, based on its innate desire for progress, reason, and to use science, technology evidence and based policies to deal with the challenges ahead.
While I don’t believe that everything will always get better, I am convinced that solutions can always be found to the problems we face.
As has happened so many times before, it is the decisions made by entrepreneurs, innovators, and those who are willing to stake their reputation, their money and their time in search of solutions that will move us forward.
Looking ahead, that spirit of enterprise is greater than ever. The consensus view is that global growth will decelerate below 3% this year and will hover around 1% in the most developed economies. Inflation, while declining, is likely to average 4-6% in 2023; and Europe and the US will continue to have interest rates below or close to headline inflation.
In our core geographies, with close to full employment in two-thirds of our markets, we expect declining inflation, low unemployment, and sustained economic growth, albeit moderate.